A rehash of Capital-Gains-less Effective income tax rates

A little late for tax season.

In response to an article at the NBER highlighting the difference between income inequality and consumption inequality in the states I decided to look into effective federal tax rates as a function of income.

If you look at the effects of the earned income tax credit the EITC which has been called the most effective (ahem) welfare program in the US (and recently written about byMankiw and Greenstein) then for poor people with children income after taxes and credit is over 50% greater than earned income financing quite a bit of the NBER’s consumption-income gap (other programs-like food stamps and housing assistance-and off the books income closing the rest).

Why not an even broader estimation of the effects of federal income taxation and benefits though?

Why not include unemployment taxes, and “employer contributions” to medicare and social security in addition to Gross income, exemptions, deductions, personal FICA, EITC, and refundable child tax credits?

I assume a very simple tax return:

  1. standard deductions only
  2. no capital gains
  3. no AMT
  4. no state taxation

Then compute the effective tax rate from zero to a million dollars. Realizing that employers employ others only if they produce more than the costs of employment salary and overhead included.

Money an employer allocates to salary must also cover the hidden taxes of unemployment and FICA, money the employee would otherwise receive. Therefore I sum total taxes paid “by the employee” and “on behalf of the employee” and refundable credits received by the employee and divide by gross wages plus taxes paid “on behalf of the employee” to come up with the effective tax rate. The y-axis of the chart is the effective federal tax rate as a function of the x-axis (compressed roughly logarithmically) which is nominal gross income.

Naively the blue line is how much you benefit/detriment as a result of tax and refundable credits. But, the blue line fails to account for unemployment and “employer” FICA. The Orange line is how much money one would be compensated in the absence of any government intervention. Where the blue line crosses the orange line (Which is the same as where the green line crosses 100%) is the break even point, households left of this don’t pay (income) taxes, people right of this do. The x-axis is properly log scaled now.

 

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God’s Love and God’s Hate

How to reconcile God’s Mercy and Compassion and Love and God’s Holiness and Justice and Hate is a difficult question we should not just gloss over.

If words when used in relation to God flatly contradict the plain language understanding of those words when used of others then to use them of God is an abuse of language. We would be better off with a tautology, that “God’s godliness is godly.” A tautology is better than nonsense. When we say things like God’s wrath on sinners is an act of love it is an abuse of language. Perhaps love spurned (like an unfaithful spouse) may motivate someone to wrath, but an expression of wrath is never considered an act of love from anyone except God.

Worse than wrath is hate. Are we going to say that hate really means love? God hates the idolatrous (Leviticus 20.23), God hates the unjust (Psalm 5.5), God hates the violent (Psalm 11.5), God hates liars and dissenters (Proverbs 6.16-19), God hates the wicked (Hosea 9.15). Or that by hating these people God is really loving them? God is love (1 John 4.8) but scriptures tell us he does hate.

To say that God would prefer that these repent and obey doesn’t solve the problem. He may want to save all and prefer all repent so that he can love them, he may be ready to forgive and love anyone, but, to hate sinners (Both Mao and Gandhi) and damn them-giving them eternal life to be able to torture them mercilessly and without end-is not a loving thing to do, however just it may be.

And many people we too hate and want to see them damned: Child molesters, murderers, genocidal tyrants, Wall Street Bankers. But we don’t pretend that thereby we love them. In fact, as Christians we feel that we are somehow not loving enough, that we are not enough like sunday-school-Jesus. Why do we pretend that God has somehow squared the circle?

Reconciling God’s hate and wrath with his predication as love is baffling, insisting they are the same thing is nonsensical. To pretend otherwise is Pollyannaish, and does disservice to christianity, reinforcing stereotypes of Christianity as muddle-headed wish-fulfillment.

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An online ethnography of China

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I am not a Calvinist for the same reason I am a Theist

In Christianity there are many views on the foreknowledge of God varieties of Reformed positions-Calvinism and Arminianism-and also the traditional Roman Catholic Augustinian view and Molinism a Roman Catholic compromise position. These can be sliced and diced many different ways but for me the question comes down to determinism.

The framework of my faith was laid by the evangelistic and apologetic writings of C.S. Lewis. In the context of this reflection Miracles is notable. Therein Lewis lays out the argument from reason, which is briefly that in a system of naturalism or materialism even mental states are determined by the state of the universe at time t-1 as is everything else in the universe back to the big bang. And if everything is causally determined, particularly mental states, then there cannot be propositions, true or false, and therefore even the statement “materialism is true” would be nothing but the sound of wind in the trees.

So materialistic determinism must be false as knowledge of my mind and propositions, judgements, and reason (even if fallen) therein is prior to my knowledge of the world and any argument that negates the unspoken axioms that make argumentation possible.

Of course you could always attempt to be a committed and consistent nihilist but only suicides manage that.

Something I realized sometime after coming to faith and a few years ago now is that one cannot affirm Calvinism for the same reason that one cannot affirm materialism. It isn’t materialism peculiarly that is self defeating but determinism in any form. It is incoherent to argue, a process that presumes libertarian freedom of the will, for a conclusion that contradicts it.

Now I wonder though, after my initial attraction, is Molinism much better? Considering Newcomb’s paradox if God perfectly predicts so called free choices (even across an infinite panoply of possible worlds, this does not affect the conclusion) and then acts to realize them is this any less deterministic? Contra William Lane Craig and Alvin Plantiga I currently doubt it.

Currently an open theist (that is “neo-molinist”) explanation a la Gregory Boyd seems to handle this philosophical mine field the best. God doesn’t know merely what will and won’t happen, but also what might and might not happen. There the future is not settled as it doesn’t yet exist.

As per Newcomb’s paradox to perfectly predict is to cause (even if the predictor is not acting to realize as in Molinism; thus Newcomb’s paradox similarly applies to any theory in which God perfectly predicts the future, including classical Arminianism), but as scripture concurs most predictions, that is prophecies or oracles, in the bible (especially those that regard humans and their desserts) are explicitly or implicitly contingent on current trends continuing. Further there are predictions made by God that are confirmed to have failed to have come true in the Bible, thus scripture itself affirms that God does not perfectly and totally know the future.

This is seen most explicitly in:

  • Judges 1.2 and 1.19
  • Jonah
  • Jeremiah 18.7-8
  • Jeremiah 22.18-19 and 36.30-31 and 2 Kings 24.6
  • Jeremiah 34.4-5 and 52.8-11
  • Ezekiel 26.7-14 and 29.17-20.

Further, these Old Testament scripture writers don’t seem the least bit perturbed that God doesn’t have perfect or complete foreknowledge.

Now, open theism is not without problems, see Peter’s 3 denials and Judas betrayal, but those problems are less than in any other view.

 

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Postmodernism isn’t post modernism

Bugs Bunny

Bugs Bunny (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I have long been bothered by the notion of “postmodernism”. Outside of architecture it does not have a coherent definition. Applied to literature, culture, and philosophy it doesn’t come after modernism, modernism and postmodernism are contemporaneous and difficult to separate.

Characteristically modern are: Hegel, Jane Austen, Karl Marx, Charles Darwin, Sherlock Holmes, John Steinbeck,H. G. Wells, Robert Frost, Scooby Doo, and Cormac McCarthy. Characteristically postmodern are: Rousseau, Kierkegaard, Nietzsche, Kafka, Peter Pan, Oscar Wilde, Bugs Bunny, Steve Martin, Catch-22, and Chuck Palahniuk.

No temporal order is present, that is neither is “post” the other.

The missiologist and anthropologist Paul Hiebert has a much better way of reconciling such tensions as Modernism vs Postmodernism.

Hiebert explains relying on Opler that world-views are not reducible to monolithic patterns, rather they are composed of multiple theme and counter-theme pairs. Themes lacking counter-themes would topple a culture, counter-themes provide necessary balance. This framework relieved a tension in my mind.

When reading Hiebert on Opler I had an epiphany. An epiphany that so-called modernism and postmodernism are not two different world-views. Rather these are a theme and counter-theme within a worldview; these are components of secular materialism the dominating world-view in the West since the West ceased to be called Christendom. The modern postmodern divide is really the theme-pair of objectivism and subjectivism that goes back as far as the Enlightenment and Romanticism. This framework is most helpful for me here, in my society. Not being particularly (post)modern, with themes and counter-themes I can better engage post-Christendom Westerners rather than relying on the too-easy categories of modernism and postmodernism.

Objectivism and subjectivism have been in a tug of war since the rise of secular materialism, of course nothing is secular. We should reject both sides of the secular materialist coin.

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Meet the New Boss Same as the Old Boss

Meet the New Boss Same as the Old Boss

Meet the New Boss Same as the Old Boss

“I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
Don’t get fooled again
No, no!,

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss” – The Who, “We Won’t Get Fooled Again

NSA collecting phone records of millions of Verizon customers daily

NSA phone records collection: anger swells after data revelations

Verizon forced to hand over telephone data – full court ruling

Verizon court order: telephone call metadata and what it can show

US spy chief Clapper defends Prism and phone surveillance

Confirmed: The NSA is Spying on Millions of Americans

Timeline of NSA Domestic Spying

Obama’s defense? Bush did it first! It’s for your own good!

Of course all of this has been true since at least the 70’s

Church Committee

We keep getting fooled again.

 

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Backpacking gear guide for the beginner, a bibliography

If you have answered a question by email more than once you should probably turn it into a blog post.
This is the Boy Scout “Field Book” Which covers most everything outdoors related:



Gear Reviews:
http://www.outdoorgearlab.com -good systematic reviews
http://www.backpackgeartest.org -better non-systematic reviews

Stores:
http://www.campsaver.com -about like the above
http://www.steepandcheap.com -the outdoor woot.com
http://www.campmor.com -like overstock.com for camping
http://www.sierratradingpost.com -a less focused campmor
http://www.cabelas.com -for the hook & bullet (therefor heavy) crowd not cam and sprocket
http://www.basspro.com -the walmart to cabelas target

This is the “ultralight” perspective, where you trade comfort and gear for knowledge and experience it is the hardcore of backpacking:

Gear in general, great but infrequently updated:

Clothing philosophy:

Andy Kirkpatrick for good clothes for bad weather:

Skurka for good clothes for good to middling weather:

A response to Skurka by Dave Chenault:

How far we have come, not far at all:
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The Moto X Sucks (The 2014 version)

Subtitle: FYI: Don’t buy a 2nd Gen Moto X. 1st Gen built like a tank, 2nd Gen built like a  Christmas ornament.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:House_of_Fabergé_-_Rose_Trellis_Egg_-_Walters_44501.jpg

A Faberge Egg from Wikipedia

 

I have been with Republic Wireless for a year with a first gen moto x and loved every minute of both the phone and the service. Republic really is awesome.

Like many people who have switched from a big carrier I became something of an evangelist trying to free friends and family from those big carriers.

Adding it up I have convinced 8 people to join Republic with Motorola phones telling them how great my phone was, noting every time the build quality.

That all changes now that I have a second gen moto x. I will no longer be recommending the phone I have (now the second gen). I will tell them to get a 1st gen while they can or get a moto e (their cheapest offering) because motorola makes poor quality phones and thinks that is to be expected.

My first gen that I loved survived many drops and bumps and weathered them like a tank. One or two dozen times was it dropped from standing height onto hardwood and tile, and several times it survived drops onto the street as well. For a while I was doing a lot of construction work renovating an old house. The phone I had before that (an iPhone 4s pre-republic) I dropped maybe a few times in 2 years.

The Moto X first generation was remarkably durable and I did in fact make such remarks repeatedly, I sang it’s praises in that regard. I never placed the first gen in a case and it was bulletproof.

Being so impressed I decided to sell my previous phone to someone I convinced to join republic and upgrade to the newer supposedly better 2nd gen. That was two weeks ago.

In the past two weeks I have babied and coddled the new phone as it seemed too pretty too use. I was right about that. It is in fact too pretty to use.

The first gen is built like a tank, the second gen is built like a christmas ornament. Pretty, shiny, bright, and so delicate that if you dare to touch it the phone will shatter.

This morning I set my new, still pristine phone on a chair, I didn’t know that a) there was a slight slant to the chair and b) the moto x was so slick. The phone slowly slid off the chair and from about 18 inches off the floor.

I thought to myself that I shouldn’t have been so careless and I hope the decorative metal border is not scuffed.

I picked it up and to my shock the screen was shattered! I thought: I must have a defective phone! There is no way motorola would build such a delicate piece of crap! The first time it had been touched by anything but a loving caress destroyed it!

But I was sure that motorola would stand by the quality of their product and replace a defective phone that was waiting to shatter like this one.

I spent almost an hour with their support/warranty department first by online chat and then by phone.

I was wrong. Motorola does not stand by their products.

According to Motorola phone that shatters when you use it is expected! Something like the exploding gas tank of the Ford Pinto, it is a design feature!

In paraphrase such defects and frailties are to be expected in Motorola phones and the shattered screen is not covered by warranty. The shattered screen from an 18 inch drop the first gen (or a fresh egg) would have laughed at.

When I asked him the guy I talked to on the phone in customer support (name withheld I don’t want to get him in trouble) even admitted the new moto x has lower build quality and is much more delicate than the first gen.

Republic is still great, Motorola is not.

In the future I will tell people how great Republic is despite the low quality phones and that they should get a first gen moto x that made Motorola worth noticing again, not the worthless low quality sequel cashing in on the good name of the first.

I will tell potential converts to Republic Wireless to get the cheapest moto e because anything else is a waste of money.

I wonder if this low quality is standard now that Google sold Motorola off to Lenovo.


 

tldr:

  • the X2 is particularly delicate
  • this is a degradation from the X1
  • that the build quality is lower in the X2 than the X1
  • and that Motorola knows it.
  • I would have never purchased such a delicate phone had I known, and recommend you don’t now that you know.
  • Buy a 1st gen while you can or don’t waste your money with Motorola and get the cheapest phone you can to access republic.
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That’s the best the NSA has got?

Somalia

Somalia

“He was a San Diego cab driver who fled Somalia as a teenager, winning asylum in the United States after he was wounded during fighting among warring tribes. Today, Basaaly Moalin, 36, is awaiting sentencing following his conviction on charges that he sent $8,500 to Somalia in support of the terrorist group al-Shabab.

Moalin’s prosecution, barely noticed when the case was in court, has suddenly come to the fore of a national debate about U.S. surveillance. Under pressure from Congress, senior intelligence officials have offered it as their primary example of the unique value of a National Security Agency program that collects tens of millions of phone records from Americans.” (emphasis added)

See the whole story.

$8,500.

So the end that supposedly justify the government’s evil means is a cab driver wiring money home to one of many factions vying for control of his home country?

Al-Shabab sounds pretty evil as well, but, the NSA’s best example to justify the Stasi’s wet dream is not foiling a threat to Americans, nor even a threat in the western hemisphere, nor even a terrorist plot or plan at all, but wiring money home so Al-Shabab could buy perhaps 20 AK-47s.

That’s the best justification they have.

It makes me wonder if the government’s evil outweighs its incompetence or its incompetence outweighs its evil.

Addition: Perhaps you are not convinced a total surveillance state is so bad, read this.

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A Better University Term Schedule

It seems that university term scheduling is broken. Why are summer terms relegated to second tier status if they are even included at all? With a standard 14 week plus one week break university semester you can comfortably fit in 3 equal terms and even have space left over for 5 one-week intensive miniterms if you wish.

Every professor need not teach a class every term, but can spread existing course-load over a wider array of options.

Even better would be 6 seven week terms where you attend class twice as much per week but take half as many classes at a time. The tradeoff here, of course, is that you have less time for extended projects and papers, and less time to bring up to speed students who fall behind before the final.

  1. Spring
  2. Spring
  3. Spring
  4. Spring
  5. Spring
  6. Spring
  7. Spring
  8. Break (Actually move for easter)
  9. One Week Intensive MiniTerm[1. That is a one week class in which you complete all of your readings by the first day, you attend 8 hours a day for 6 days, you take your midterm on monday and you take your final exam on saturday with your term paper/project due X weeks after the class.]
  10. Spring
  11. Spring
  12. Spring
  13. Spring
  14. Spring
  15. Spring
  16. Spring-Finals
  17. One Week Intensive MiniTerm
  18. Summer
  19. Summer
  20. Summer
  21. Summer
  22. Summer
  23. Summer
  24. Summer
  25. Break (actually move for july 4)
  26. One Week Intensive MiniTerm
  27. Summer
  28. Summer
  29. Summer
  30. Summer
  31. Summer
  32. Summer
  33. Summer-Finals
  34. One Week Intensive MiniTerm
  35. Fall
  36. Fall
  37. Fall
  38. Fall
  39. Fall
  40. Fall
  41. Fall
  42. Break(actually move for thanksgiving)
  43. One Week Intensive MiniTerm
  44. Fall
  45. Fall
  46. Fall
  47. Fall
  48. Fall
  49. Fall
  50. Fall-Finals
  51. Christmas
  52. Christmas
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